Health insurance reform is not the only promise made by Barack Obama during the late campaign. If he is not so cowed by his health care reform experience that he abandons other parts of his agenda, Obama will try to overhaul the transportation infrastructure of the nation, including by upgrading antiquated freight and passenger rail with high-speed alternatives. It's possible though hardly a given that "bipartisanship" will be set aside and the Senate majority will proceed to get something done.
The Transport Politic reminds us that the same reactionary forces that have lined up to thwart health care reform are likely to conspire to prevent improvements to our transportation system (although an inducement to fixing transportation from the point of view of an incumbent -- left or right -- is that doing so will require laying out lots of cash in virtually every state, a circumstance certain to melt the stone heart of even the most illiberal officeholder in recipient precincts). The Transport Politic has produced an invaluable chart showing where things might stand in the U.S. Senate functioned democratically. Here's their take on the administration's likelihood of success:
In response to the President’s State of the Union Address in February, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R) criticized the stimulus, arguing that it was “larded with wasteful spending.” He pointed to the $8 billion devoted to high-speed rail as a specifically unnecessary expenditure. It became clear at that moment that the road to an improved American transportation system would not be a straight shot. How will the members of the Senate react when they are forced to consider expanding the federal commitment to transportation? That’s what this Transport Index is intended to anticipate.The Transport Politic guesses that there are "56 steadfast supporters of potential bills and roughly 6 moderates who would be likely to consider coming in line," especially, one imagines, those that think significant dollars are headed down the track to their particular districts. The Transport Index 2009 by The Transit Polity is a useful resource and, since we live in a democracy, one that suggests we will soon see high speed trains whizzing up and down the coasts and spiriting freight at blinding speeds across the continent. Or will the majority cave again?
The health reform debate of the last several weeks has made evident the fact that Republicans in Congress will be able to rile up an intimidating opposition to legislation proposed by the Democratic Party. Though Democrats have 60 seats in the Senate — a number that is large enough to vote down a potentially fatal filibuster — the sudden arrival of thousands of right-wing demonstrators on scene at town hall meetings has slowed down and problematized the passage of any legislation. The tacit support of Republican Congressmen for the lies being spewed by these protesters indicates that if the GOP wants to prevent something from passing, it will do whatever is necessary. “Moderate” Democrats, especially in the Senate, have made clear that they’re willing to compromise their goals in the face of this reactionary force.
Would Republicans stage a similar temper tantrum if the Congress embarked on a massive transportation program? It’s unclear, but Mr. Jindal’s reaction in February indicates that it’s a distinct possibility. Congressman Jim Oberstar (D-MN) may be excited about appropriating $50 billion to high-speed rail and significantly expanding transit subsidies in the coming transportation legislation, but he will face a roadblock in the form of a skeptical Senate if the GOP decides to mount opposition. It’s necessary, then, to see where we stand.
Thus, the Transport Index 2009.
In evaluating the votes of all 100 current senators on ten significant bills, motions, and amendments considered by the full body over the past two years, the makeup of the Senate becomes quite clear, as illustrated in the chart and map at the top of the article. Below are the specific rankings of each senator. The votes, each of which considers transportation funding, are described at the bottom of this article; they considered matters as varied as the stimulus, high-speed rail, transit, and maintenance of infrastructure.
What is obvious is a significant partisan split, with Democrats generally voting for expansions in transportation appropriations and Republicans likely to vote against. 56 senators, including 54 Democrats and the two Independents who caucus with them, Bernie Sanders (VT) and Joseph Lieberman (CT), voted in the “good” way every time they went up to vote. The 4 other Democrats voted correctly 9/10 times (including newly Democratic Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA). There have been no motions, amendments, or bills considered over the past two years that have significantly disturbed the integrity of the Democratic caucus.
However, other than Susan Collins (ME), Olympia Snowe (ME), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX), Republicans were just as likely to vote against transportation funding as they were to vote for it. The GOP caucus, in other words, is primarily an anti-investment group.
The worst offenders are Jon Kyl (AZ), John McCain (AZ), Mike Johanns (NE), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), John Barrasso (WY), and Mike Enzi (WY), who voted the “good” way on none of the legislation, motions, or amendments considered here. They are the declared enemies of improved federal funding for transportation.
Where do we stand, then? What are the chances of moving ahead with progressive legislation that would expand the federal commitment to alternative transportation? The Senate has 56 steadfast supporters of potential bills and roughly 6 moderates who would be likely to consider coming in line. It wouldn’t be too difficult to assemble a 60-vote majority, in other words — unless the moderates get scared off by intense right-wing opposition.
All this is speculative, of course: these rankings by no means pre-determine actual votes in the future. More importantly, perhaps, the Senate needs to actually get around to considering any more investments, something it has been reluctant to do over the past few months. The stimulus’ massive expansion of federal government outlays seems, for the moment, to have made new commitments to transportation less than a priority.
Clip File: Also, see Stranded at the Station: The Impact of the Financial Crisis in Public Transportation, a new report from Transportation for America and the Transportation Equity Network: "Many transit agencies across the country have cut service, raised fares or laid off workers to deal with shrinking budgets, severely affecting the people who depend on regular, reliable service in order to access jobs, social services and education everyday. Nearly 90 percent of transit systems have had to raise fares or cut service in the past year and among the 25 largest transit operators, 10 agencies are raising fares more than 13 percent." Download the report (pdf).
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