Margin of Victory: Races in the balance

Here's the action arm of True Majority's take on the races where your contribution of time or money might make a difference:

Patty WetterlingPatty Wetterling vs. Mark Kennedy, MN-6, eastern and southern Twin Cities suburbs
Child advocate Patty Wetterling is taking her concern for families, education and healthcare to a new level, by vying to replace departing Republican incumbent Mark Kennedy. In a state that is also energized by exciting Governor and Senate races, this house race is a leader on lists to switch parties. The Republican nominee, State Senator Michelle Bachmann, is far more conservative than this suburban Twin Cities district and Wetterling enjoys name recognition in over 90% of the district.

Claire McCaskillMissouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Jim Talent
State Auditor Claire McCaskill is taking on freshman Senator Jim Talent in a state that has lost its patience with the direction of the country and the unending nature of the Iraq war. Both candidates have been elected statewide, but one is attached to an unpopular president and nitty gritty issues for Missourians like social security privatization and medicare cuts. McCaskill's job will be to hang those policies about Talent's neck, along with a few unpopular votes he has taken as well. Statewide issues will play into the race as well, like the popular stem cell research referendum which is splitting Republicans apart in Missouri.

Image of Jon TesterMontana: Jon Tester vs. Conrad Burns
Populist ... Organic Farmer ... State Senate President who knows Montanans ... Jon Tester is the candidate to beat in the race for US Senator. Incumbent Conrad Burns is making a misstatement a week and still can't really explain where all that Jack Abramoff money went. With the strong wind of a blow out primary at his back, Tester is ready to put this Senate seat in the Democratic column.

Sherrod BrownOhio: Sherrod Brown vs. Mike DeWine
Ohio Republicans have taken a beating in the last two years, with a wildly unpopular Governor, a pension scandal and a number of leadership Republicans, including Bob Ney, being associated nationally with scandal. Therefore, a challenge to normally safe incumbent Mike DeWine is a lot closer than usual. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, a star progressive who has carried TrueMajority causes in the House of Representatives for 14 years, is challenging DeWine and the party he belongs to. Brown has recently seen some very encouraging polls. Now all that is required is a consistent, well-funded campaign.

Bob Casey, Jr.Pennsylvania: Bob Casey, Jr. vs. Rick Santorum
Sen. Rick Santorum is being challenged by a statewide-elected candidate whose name has huge curb appeal, State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. Casey has consistently had a lead in all polls, and usually by wide margins. The administration lost this state in the last election and has built up no good will since. However, Santorum may be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in the country, but he is a resourceful politician and has a fundraising advantage, so the race could be tight on election night.

Sheldon WhitehouseRhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Republican nominee
Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse is the Democratic candidate and will come out swinging for the election. This state has only elected two Republicans to the Senate in the modern era and they are Lincoln Chafee and his father, so the general discontent with the Republican party this year does not bode well for Chafee.

Harold FordTennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker
When Sen. Bill Frist announced he was stepping down after two terms, beltway folks were surprised to hear Rep. Harold Ford declare his intentions to run. But since then, he has done a masterful job of clearing the Democratic field, leaving all the airtime in the primary for Republican candidates to beat up on each other. Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker easily beat his opponents in the primary, but the stinging attacks still ring in voters ears. Corker would be favored, but Ford is putting together a good campaign and uniting the Democratic Party behind him. The numbers still have with one in the high potential for change category.

Gabby GiffordsGabrielle Giffords vs. Republican candidate, AZ-08, Tucson
Former state legislator Gabrielle Giffords will be facing an extremely conservative opponent in the race to take back the seat emptied by retiring internationalist Jim Kolbe. The seat, which runs along the Arizona/Mexico border, will be one of the hottest challenges in the country. Giffords legislative career has a long record of supporting women's rights, healthcare access and affordability and protection of the environment and open spaces. Her opponent is a poster boy for the Minuteman movement on the Arizona border and will run a campaign of fear-mongering and racist divisiveness. Moving this seat back to the Democratic column will be a victory for us all.

Ed PerlmutterEd Perlmutter, CO-7, northern Denver suburbs
Ed Perlmutter, education and alternative energy supporter, has come out of the Democratic primary as the nominee for this open seat. A lifelong resident of the Denver-suburbs district, Perlmutter represents the best chance to take this seat back. The retiring Congressman won the seat four years ago by 102 votes. Now it is time for a Democrat to represent the district which went for Kerry two years ago.

Joe CourtneyJoe Courtney vs. Rob Simmons, CT-2, New London
In one of the most Democratic seats in the country represented by a Republican, the voters of eastern Connecticut are ready for a change. Joe Courtney, a former state senator, is taking the challenge. The incumbent's votes for drilling in the Artic Refuge and support of the war in Iraq certainly give voters pause, as well as continued questions about campaign money from Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. Connecticut is a hot-bed of change this year, and this seat should lead the way.

Diane FarrellDiane Farrell vs. Christopher Shays, CT-4, Stamford, Bridgeport
Diane Farrell, Wesport Selectwoman, is taking on Chris Shays, one of the most wishy-washy members of Congress. Farrell's strong desire to get us out of Iraq and her concern for the social safety net that means so much to all Americans makes her a great match for this Democratic leaning district. Voters in this New York suburban district are tired of representation that votes for the leadership of the party that is undercutting all they believe in and they will have a great alternative in Diane Farrell this November.

John CranleyJohn Cranley vs. Steve Chabot, OH-1, Western Cincinnati and suburbs
John Cranley is taking on incumbent Republican Steve Chabot, who seems to have spent more time globe-trotting on lobbyists' dimes than representing his constituents while they dealt with the real problems at home of health care, jobs and gas prices. Cranley's efforts locally in alternative energy sources, affordable public transportation and clean air are the kinds of ideas voters are ready for in Washington and this western Cincinnati seat looks like one of the most likely to flip.

Zack SpaceZack Space vs. TBA, OH-18, east and south central, Zanesville
Zack Space won the nomination to take on the scandal-ridden Bob Ney, but now Ney has stepped down and the opponent remains unclear. Space, however, remains an excellent candidate. His deep roots in the community and sense of service stem from his grandfather's service in World War I after emigrating from Greece make his a great candidate to represent the wide-ranging district that runs through the eastern center of Ohio. Space actively campaigned for support of election reform while a primary candidate and will take that message all the way to Washington DC, with voters' support.

Mary Jo KilroyMary Jo Kilroy vs. Deborah Pryce, OH-15, Central: western Columbus and suburbs
Mary Jo Kilroy has been representing parts of this western Columbus district in various capacities for many years, bringing her progressive vision to issues like alternative energy local transportation and electoral reform. Now she is taking on Congresswoman Deborah Pryce, who likes to refer to herself as a moderate while voting for big oil and gas, tax cuts for millionaires and supports George Bush's \"stay the course\" vision for Iraq. When will voters have enough of this type of two-faced representation? In November, when they send Mary Jo Kilroy's new passion and new ideas to the House of Representatives.

Jim GerlachLois Murphy vs. Jim Gerlach, PA-6, parts of Montgomery, Berks and Chester counties
If you are looking for one of the top seats to change parties in 2006, this one is it. Pennsylvania is pretty darn tired of the Bush administration and the direction of the country, as made clear by the polling numbers in the US Senate race. Lois Murphy, attorney and mother of two, is taking on the sophomore Congressman Jim Gerlach, who is running like crazy away from the current leadership of his party. He can run, but he can't hide from all those votes supporting the war in Iraq, tax cuts for the wealthy, funding of nuclear weapons. Muphy is pressing hard and voters will give the Bush administration a vote on its performance on November, the outcome is looking bleak.

Joe SestakJoe Sestak vs. Curt Weldon, PA-7, Philadelphia's Delaware suburbs
Joe Sestak, recently retired from a 31 year career in the Navy, is taking on Curt Weldon, a strong supporter of the war and an advocate of ballistic missile defense, an untested, ineffective weapon system that costs us $10 billion a year! Vice Admiral Sestak, a Harvard PhD, will bring a breadth of leadership and educational experience to Congress that will help us take our foreign policy in a new direction. He opposes the Iraq War, calling it \"unnecessary\" and a \"tragic misadventure.\" In this district which gave Kerry a win in the last election, there are winds of change blowing and Joe Sestak and our nation's foreign policy will be the beneficiaries.

Patrick MurphyPatrick Murphy vs. Mike Fitzpatrick, PA-8, northern Philadelphia suburbs
Patrick Murphy's knowledge of the situation in Iraq comes from his own tour of duty there. As a JAG officer, he was able to experience both the reactions of Iraqis to our occupation there and the demands being put on our soldiers. Murphy's plan for Iraq includes bringing home the National Guard ASAP and a new plan for Iraq. His opponent, freshman member Mike Fitzpatrick, has been receiving funds hand over fist from Republican leadership PACs and will be flooding the airwaves in this northern Philadelphia suburban district with the administration's messages. Murphy's mission will be to make that connection between the administration, which lost the last election in this district, with the member who now serves them in Congress, and help voters make a change.

Tammy DuckworthTammy Duckworth vs. Peter Roskam, IL-6, Chicago north and west sides
In the Chicago suburbs open seat vacated by Henry Hyde, the Democratic candidate, Tammy Duckworth is an Iraq vet who lost three limbs during her tour of duty there. As the seat trends more Democratic, voters are hungry for someone who is ready to grapple with the larger issues of the day. Duckworth brings integrity and intelligence to the important issues our country is facing in foreign policy. Her strong internationalist influence and unwavering support of veterans' issues are the messages that war-weary voters are ready to hear. Her opponent, a one-time Tom DeLay staffer, has an awful lot to run from, Duckworth stands on her experience and stamina.

Brad EllsworthBrad Ellsworth vs. John Hostettler, IN-08, Evansville, Terre Haute
Brad Ellsworth, the telegenic sheriff in the Evansville and Terre Haute district, is running against John Hostettler, the Congressman who was stopped at his regional airport because he had a loaded gun in his carry-on. His excuse, "I forgot it was in there." Ellworth, by contrast has been well aware of the laws of the land, having served as police officer for over 25 years. He is running to bring better paying jobs and job security, better trade agreements and stronger education for the workforce we will rely on in the next generation.

Baron HillBaron Hill vs. Mark Sodrel, IN-09, New Albany, Bloomington
Baron Hill, long owner of this southern Indiana seat, is up for a rematch against trucking company owner, Congressman Mike Sodrel, who beat him in the last election. However, tolerance for the direction of the country has declined markedly in the district and Hill's rematch is considered one of the best pick-ups in the country.

Bruce BraleyBruce Braley vs. Mike Whalen, IA-1, Dubuque, Davenport
In an open seat freed up by Congressman Jim Nussle running for Governor, Democratic nominee Bruce Braley is ready to put this seat in the Democratic column. His strong connection to the community and strong support for TrueMajority values, including support of the Common Sense Budget Act, make this race a top priority for TrueMajority ACTION PAC. Our support of Braley in the primary helped him across the line and we will be there with him on election night to ring in victory.

John YarmouthJohn Yarmouth vs. Anne Northup, KY-3, Louisville
John Yarmouth is taking on an incumbent considered one of the most vulnerable year after year. In this Louisville-based Democratic district, Yarmouth's profile as an anti-war activist and journalist will inspire Democrats to come out to the polls in November and bring representation to the district that it deserves.

Ken LucasKen Lucas vs. Geoff Davis, KY-4, Northeast, Cincinnati suburbs
Former Congressman Ken Lucas thought retirement would be easy in 2004. But when he saw the direction of the country and the direction of his replacement, freshman Republican Geoff Davis, Lucas realized he would have to get back in the ring. His long dedication to the district propelled him quickly into a strong challenger position and a strong campaign will bring him back to the House of Representatives as part of the majority party.

Linda StenderLinda Stender vs. Mike Ferguson, NJ-7, North Central, parts of Woodbridge and Union
State Assemblywoman and ex-Fanwood Mayor Linda Stender is taking on six-year incumbent Mike Ferguson. Stender's strong progressive credentials make her a great partner for TrueMajority once in Congress. She will strongly advocate for an exit strategy from Iraq and puts children and seniors ahead of tax cuts for the wealthy. Her opponent ran strongly on his attachment to President Bush two years ago. Wonder what his platform will be this time?

Jill DerbyJill Derby vs. Jim Gibbons, NV-2
Jill Derby has made the red to blue list and has posted some good fundraising numbers. With Gibbons running for governor, a number of Republicans have signed up for the race (including his wife), but Derby is alone on the Democratic side. She is third generation Nevadan and landmarks in the district bear the Derby name.

Patricia MadridPatricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson, NM-1
Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid, Attorney General, is running a strong race against one of the most hawkish Republicans in Congress. Madrid is taking her on over the airwaves, bad planning for the war in Iraq, bad follow-up for the injured vets coming home. Emphasizing the issues that always play well in this Albuquerque-based district, social security, job security, Madrid has put the incumbent in the position of needing to a lot of explaining. Now she just needs to get those Democratic voters to the polls.

Mike ArcuriMike Arcuri vs. Ray Meier, NY-24, Utica
The retirement of moderate Republican Sherwood Boehlert opens up a strong pick-up opportunity for Democrats in the Utica area. Oneida County Attorney Mike Arcuri has won four elections in the District since 1993, so has long been identified as an public servant and strong Democratic candidate. His opponent, a state legislator, it far more conservative than the middle of the road Congressman Boehlert. Arcuri has quickly garnered support from unions and grassroots activists who are excited to see this seat change hands.

Heath ShulerHeath Shuler vs. Charles Taylor, NC-11, Asheville
Heath Shuler, former NFL quarterback, is taking on ethics-challenged Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in this Asheville-based district. Reports of savings and loan impropriety, campaign fund discrepancies and even vote-changing have long plagued Taylor, but he has always had enough money to buy his way back. However, it seems that this year. With unions, education advocates and environmentalists on Shuler's side, this can be the year for change, as some polls here have indicated.

Nick LampsonNick Lampson vs. write-in candidate, TX-22, southeast Houston and suburbs
Now that Tom DeLay has been permanently removed from this race, the election has ended up with a ballot including Democratic ex-Congressman Nick Lampson, an Independent candidate, and a write-in line for the Republican candidate. DeLay long ago gave away Republican voters from this district because he had such a lock on it. Now a new measurement will be taken and Nick Lampson, who previously represented up to one third of the voters now in the district, with be taking the lead in winning back seats for Democrats. Even with the complications of a concurrent special election to fill the remaining time in DeLay's term, this seat is considered the most likely to change hands in November.

Darcy BurnerDarcy Burner vs. Dave Reichert, WA-8, Seattle's King county
Darcy Burner, Microsoft executive, computer programmer and community activist, has signed up to take on freshman Dave Reichert. He ran on a law and order platform in the election using his sheriff credentials, but the district's reaction to the Iraq War has undermined their tolerance for his leadership. Kerry won this district by 3 points. Now it is Burner's job to get those voters to the polls in November to make real change.

Ron KleinRon Klein vs. Clay Shaw, FL-22
In the race of the big dollars, attorney Ron Klein is doing all he can to bring to light the weak representation constituents have been receiving from Republican Clay Shaw for the last 26 years. But in this east coast Florida district that includes parts of West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale, Shaw has a $4.2 million war chest he is using to convince voters that they need to keep him in office because of his seniority. Of course, that argument will be hollow when his party no longer controls the Capitol. Klein's message on the importance of social security and adequate healthcare are what voters really want to hear and will send them to the polls in November to ensure Clay Shaw's retirement plan.

Patricia MadridPatricia Madrid vs. Heather Wilson, NM-1
Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid, Attorney General, is running a strong race against one of the most hawkish Republicans in Congress. Madrid is taking her on over the airwaves, bad planning for the war in Iraq, bad follow-up for the injured vets coming home. Emphasizing the issues that always play well in this Albuquerque-based district, social security, job security, Madrid has put the incumbent in the position of needing to a lot of explaining. Now she just needs to get those Democratic voters to the polls.

Here's the link to True Majority Action's 2006 wish list.

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